Which of these countries will recognize the state of Israel by 2040? [Ṁ1500 Pool]
Middle EastGeopoliticsOne-Off14yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBolivia 100%Leader of 32 outcomes
Forecasters
27
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+61.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleOct 30, 23, 7:37 PM UTCJan 1, 41, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
PolymarketWhich countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?
PolymarketWill Israel recognize a state of Palestine before the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill as many or more countries recognize Palestine than Israel by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Finland recognize a state of Palestine before 2030
Manifold MarketsWill the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
KalshiRules
Any number of these states can resolve Yes at any time between now and the end of 2040.
- All remaining will resolve No at that time.
- If recognition is granted and then later withdrawn, the Yes resolution will remain.
- In the last few years, multiple nations have normalized relations with Israel, such as Morocco, UAE, and Kosovo.
- Will this trend pick up again, or will the recent destruction in Palestine cause a long diplomatic winter?
- If any states break preexisting relations with Israel, they can be added by me.
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- September 20+3.0pt100%
- September 25+6.0pt96%
- September 30+12.0pt91%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.8M
- 24h Vol
- $336.1K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+3.5pt64%
- October 31+4.5pt39%
- September 30-1.0pt11%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No+0.5pt84%
- Yes-0.5pt16%
- Total Vol
- $67.7M
- 24h Vol
- $253.9K
POLYMARKETSaudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by which date?
- October 31+3.0pt77%
- September 30-4.5pt30%
- September 22-4.9pt3%
+1 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- December 31-2.0pt20%
- October 31-1.5pt11%
- September 30-2.0pt2%
+9 more outcomes
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
- Iran leadership change by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which of these countries will recognize the state of Israel by 2040? [Ṁ1500 Pool]?
- Manifold Markets prices Bolivia at 100% as of September 21, 2026.
- When does Which of these countries will recognize the state of Israel by 2040? [Ṁ1500 Pool] resolve?
- Which of these countries will recognize the state of Israel by 2040? [Ṁ1500 Pool] is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2041.
- How is Which of these countries will recognize the state of Israel by 2040? [Ṁ1500 Pool] settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Any number of these states can resolve Yes at any time between now and the end of 2040.