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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Geopolitics
  3. How long will “indefinite extension” US x Iran ceasefire hold? (Weeks)
Manifold Markets

How long will “indefinite extension” US x Iran ceasefire hold? (Weeks)

One-OffGeopoliticsMiddle East6mo
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
3 weeks+ (May 12th, 1pm) 100%
Leader of 13 outcomes
Forecasters

92

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 4 minutes ago

May 6, 26, 10:37 PMDec 31, 26, 11:37 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
Manifold Markets
3 weeks+ (May 12th, 1pm)
100%

Selected outcome

7 weeks+ (June 9th, 1pm)99%

Rules

[image]Counting from the time of this post as starting time, 4/21 1:09 pst.

Manifold Markets
  • If the war does not restart by 4/23 1:09 PST then more than 2 days resolved YES
  • Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): 0.5 weeks is measured as 3 full days and 12 hours.
  • Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The dates/times for each option are listed in PST.
  • Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The Wikipedia article on the 2026 Iran war ceasefire will be used as the source for determining whether the ceasefire is still holding.
  • Update 2026-05-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the war ends entirely, that also counts as the ceasefire holding, even if Wikipedia lists a war-ending date on the ceasefire article.

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Rules

[image]Counting from the time of this post as starting time, 4/21 1:09 pst.

Manifold Markets
  • If the war does not restart by 4/23 1:09 PST then more than 2 days resolved YES
  • Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): 0.5 weeks is measured as 3 full days and 12 hours.
  • Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The dates/times for each option are listed in PST.
  • Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The Wikipedia article on the 2026 Iran war ceasefire will be used as the source for determining whether the ceasefire is still holding.
  • Update 2026-05-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the war ends entirely, that also counts as the ceasefire holding, even if Wikipedia lists a war-ending date on the ceasefire article.