LimitlessCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 79.7%
No 79.7%Market quality
30 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Liquidity
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Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Aug 25, 26, 1:55 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces.
- Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
- Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's cross-venue reference probability for CoinRithm reference is 20%.
CoinRithm reference 20% · 2 venues · 0 pt venue spread
