Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
CommoditiesOne-OffMiddle EastUS PoliticsGeopolitics3mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 87.1%
Market quality
70 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$28.4
Liquidity
$88.8K
High liquidityBid / Ask
12.0% / 13.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Mar 31, 26, 8:12 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
- Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
- An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
- An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
