Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
CommoditiesOne-OffMiddle EastUS PoliticsGeopolitics5mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 28%
Market quality
89 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$25.2K
Liquidity
$103.3K
High liquidityBid / Ask
27.0% / 28.0%
Spread
3.7%
Moderate spread7d Change
+12.0%
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Mar 31, 26, 8:12 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes28%
Large trades
$1.0k78.0%POLYMARKETNoNoSteinNoGate13d ago
POLYMARKETNoNoSteinNoGate13d ago$1.0k72.1%POLYMARKETNoNBClover21d ago
POLYMARKETNoNBClover21d agoVolume trend
$25.2kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
- Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
- An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
- An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.