Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 8:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 89.8%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleSep 28, 26, 8:13 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
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Manifold MarketsIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if, as of December 31, 2026 (23:59 China Standard Time), China has an operative commodity-specific export prohibition, quota, or licensing requirement covering natural, depleted, enriched, or uranium 233 material and covered compounds, alloys, dispersions, ceramics, concentrates, or mixtures in the nuclear licensing catalog.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- Resolved from official MOFCOM and General Administration of Customs announcements, supported by major news and trade-press reporting.
