KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningNo live quotes
Data as of Sep 9, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Before Apr 1, 2027 19%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$3.1K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
8.0% / 10.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Jul 21, 26, 8:44 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by which date?
PolymarketIsrael and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
PolymarketJoseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?
PolymarketWill a commercial non-stop passenger flight operate from a UK airport to Syria before January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Lebanon survive the current conflict in the middle east?
Manifold MarketsWill Lebanon be at war with Israel before the end of the Israel-Hamas Conflict?
Manifold MarketsRules
If a publicly scheduled commercial passenger flight carrying revenue passengers completes a nonstop trip between an airport in the United States and an airport in Lebanon after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The Washington PostFox NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe GuardianABCBloomberg NewsCBSSouth China Morning PostNBCthe Associated PressThe VergeBBCAxiosCNNABC News AustraliaThe InformationSemaforMSNBCCBCReutersPoliticoThe New York Times
- Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market.
- Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify.
- Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+21.1pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $29.9M
- 24h Vol
- $807.7K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHIAl Qadsiah vs Al Ahli Saudi
- Al Qadsiah+21.0pt68.6%
- Tie-3.0pt20.6%
- Al Ahli Saudi-17.0pt10.8%
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.0pt55.1%
- Benjamin Netanyahu28.6%
- Naftali Bennett8.2%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.1pt98%
- Yes-0.1pt2%
- Total Vol
- $8M
- 24h Vol
- $125K
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- No+0.1pt100%
- Yes-0.1pt0%
- Total Vol
- $1.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.5K
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Al-Ittihad vs Al-Fayha
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Netanyahu out by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will nonstop U.S.–Lebanon passenger flights resume??
- Kalshi prices Before Apr 1, 2027 at 19% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will nonstop U.S.–Lebanon passenger flights resume? resolve?
- Will nonstop U.S.–Lebanon passenger flights resume? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will nonstop U.S.–Lebanon passenger flights resume? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If a publicly scheduled commercial passenger flight carrying revenue passengers completes a nonstop trip between an airport in the United States and an airport in Lebanon after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.