KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningNo live quotes
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 6:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
Before Apr 1, 2027 · —
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Stored price
Before Apr 1, 2027 21.5%
Before Apr 1, 2027 21.5%Market quality
39 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$2.9K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
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Before Apr 1, 2027Spread
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Market data
Updated 55 minutes ago
LaggingJul 21, 26, 8:44 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before Apr 1, 2027
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
No regular public passenger flights from the US to Taiwan for a month, before 2039
Manifold MarketsNo regular public passenger flights from the US to Taiwan for a month, before 2039
Manifold MarketsIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by which date?
PolymarketIsrael military action against Lebanon on?
PolymarketIsrael and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
PolymarketJoseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?
PolymarketRules
If a publicly scheduled commercial passenger flight carrying revenue passengers completes a nonstop trip between an airport in the United States and an airport in Lebanon after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The Washington PostFox NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe GuardianABCBloomberg NewsCBSSouth China Morning PostNBCthe Associated PressThe VergeBBCAxiosCNNABC News AustraliaThe InformationSemaforMSNBCCBCReutersPoliticoThe New York Times
- Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Apr 1, 2027
- If a publicly scheduled commercial passenger flight carrying revenue passengers completes a nonstop trip between an airport in the United States and an airport in Lebanon after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If a publicly scheduled commercial passenger flight carrying revenue passengers completes a nonstop trip between an airport in the United States and an airport in Lebanon after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.