PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 94%
Market quality
69 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$281.1
Liquidity
$23.8K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
5.0% / 7.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
7d Change
-1.5 pts
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Nov 5, 25, 6:07 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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FutuurIsrael and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
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KalshiIsrael and Syria normalize relations by which date?
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PolymarketWill Israel and Qatar normalize relations before 2027?
KalshiRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Lebanon officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Lebanon, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+18.3pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $29.8M
- 24h Vol
- $836K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.6pt47.5%
- October 31-1.0pt28.7%
- September 30-2.0pt13.1%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.4pt55.7%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-3.0pt27.8%
- Naftali Bennett8.3%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+3.0pt80%
- September 18+2.0pt75%
- September 11+12.0pt71%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.3pt98%
- Yes-0.3pt2%
- Total Vol
- $8M
- 24h Vol
- $113.6K
KALSHIWhen will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Before Jan 1, 2029-2.0pt69%
- Before Jul 1, 2028-1.0pt67%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-1.0pt64%
+11 more outcomes
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Netanyahu out by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027??
- Polymarket prices No at 94% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? resolve?
- Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Lebanon officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.