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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Geopolitics
  3. How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?

How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?

2.5% (24h)One-OffGeopolitics6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
8
8 32%+0.8%
Leader of 16 outcomes
Market quality

56 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$143.9

Liquidity

$119.4K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

10.0% / 16.4%

Spread

64.0%

Wide spread
7d Change

+2.7%

Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Nov 13, 25, 4:26 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

832%

Rules

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
  • Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
  • For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
  • Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
  • Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

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Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$64,098.06+0.61%EthereumETH$1,677.23+0.74%SolanaSOL$68.18+1.56%DogecoinDOGE$0.0877+0.17%XRPXRP$1.15+1.45%BNBBNB$607.70+0.32%

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Rules

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
  • Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
  • For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
  • Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
  • Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.