Will the US Treasury issue a new General License authorizing broad oil operations in Venezuela in 2026?
Bonds & TreasuriesOne-OffRegulationCommoditiesTrade PolicyLatin America3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 90.8%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleJan 3, 26, 8:02 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
Resolution Criteria:
- Yes: If OFAC issues a General License (GL) that explicitly supersedes or expands beyond the narrow scope of General License 41 (which currently restricts Chevron's profits to debt repayment).
- Yes: If the specific sanctions prohibiting US persons from dealing with PDVSA (E.O. 13850) are formally lifted or suspended.
- No: If only "Specific Licenses" (case-by-case private permissions) are granted to individual companies like Exxon or ConocoPhillips without a public General License.
- I intend to resolve in the spirit of the question in case of gray area.
- I will not bet in this market to remain as objective as possible.
