Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86.7%
Forecasters
39
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingDec 22, 24, 11:16 PM UTCJan 1, 29, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump take back the Panama Canal?
KalshiWill Trump deploy the US military to the Panama Canal?
Manifold MarketsTrump seizes Panama Canal in second term?
Manifold MarketsWill USA use military force to take control over either Greenland, Canada or the Panama Canal before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill the United States control 50% or more of the Panama Canal by the end of Trump's Term?
Manifold MarketsPanama Canal effectively closed by which date?
PolymarketRules
I won’t bet.
- Will bias towards YES if ambiguous.
- Acquiring a 50+ year lease counts as YES.