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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Geopolitics
  3. US x Cuba military clash in 2026?
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?

US x Cuba military clash in 2026?

0.5% (24h)One-OffGeopolitics6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 50%
Market quality

80 / 100

High quality
24h Volume

$2.5K

Liquidity

$34.8K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

49.0% / 51.0%

Spread

4.1%

Moderate spread
7d Change

+9.5%

Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Feb 26, 26, 12:36 AMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes50%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces.
  • Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
  • Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
  • Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.

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Active in these topics

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces.
  • Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
  • Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
  • Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.