Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Oct 2026?
RegulationOne-OffTrade PolicyPoliticsUS PoliticsElection13dBefore Nov 1, 2026
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Yes · —
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Stored price
Yes 75%
Yes 75%Market quality
32 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$27
Low open interestBid / Ask
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YesSpread
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Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Oct 1, 26, 2:00 PM UTCNov 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Yes
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Manifold MarketsRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
Settles via:New York TimesBloombergthe White Housethe Office of the United States Trade RepresentativeReutersAssociated Pressthe President of the United States
- For the purposes of this Contract, an announcement must satisfy ALL of the following criteria: Made through official channels including White House press conferences, official White House statements, presidential speeches, official presidential social media accounts, or official presidential appearances Explicitly describes the arrangement as a "trade deal," "trade agreement," "trade memorandum," "trade pact," or uses substantially similar language indicating a formal trade arrangement Involves at least one foreign country, territory, or international trade bloc Preliminary agreements, frameworks, or agreements in principle do count as long as they are presented as a new trade-related agreement. It also includes modifications or re-negotiated versions of previous agreements. New arrangements include, but are not limited to: Agreements with a country, territory, or trade bloc with which the United States does not currently have a comprehensive trade agreement Agreements that cover trade sectors, industries, or product categories not previously covered by existing U.S. trade agreements with the same partner(s) An agreement that establishes fundamentally different trade mechanisms, dispute resolution procedures, or regulatory frameworks compared to existing agreements with the same partner(s) The following qualify as announcements that trigger the Payout Criterion: A new bilateral trade agreement between the U.S. and another country A new multilateral trade agreement involving the U.S. and multiple countries Trade memoranda of understanding that establish new trade frameworks Sector-specific trade deals (e.g., agricultural, technology, energy trade agreements) Trade arrangements that are announced as "agreements in principle" or "framework agreements" The following do NOT trigger the Payout Criterion: Informal statements, leaks, or "sources say" reports without official presidential announcement Announcements of trade negotiations beginning, trade talks being scheduled, or intentions to pursue trade deals Tariff announcements, trade sanctions, or trade enforcement actions that do not establish new bilateral or multilateral trade frameworks Congressional approval or ratification of previously announced deals Announcements of trade visits, delegations, or diplomatic meetings without announcing an actual deal Announcements regarding domestic trade policy changes that do not involve foreign partners
Rules for each outcome
- Yes
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.
- No
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.