PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 97%
Market quality
67 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$33.1
Liquidity
$19.4K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
2.4% / 2.6%
Spread
0.2 pt
Tight spreadComments
22
7d Change
-0.3 pts
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
May 19, 26, 5:23 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by which date?
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FutuurRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- This market will remain open through December 31, 2026, or until the specified individual is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison.
- Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
- Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
- If at any point the investigation or any resulting criminal case against the specified individual formally ends without any possibility of a jail/prison sentence being issued, including due to no charges being filed, charges being dismissed, an acquittal, or any other situation in which no judgment is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
