Will the Spanish ex-president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be tried because of his involvement with Maduro’s government?
PoliticsOne-OffElectionLatin AmericaCrime & Justice3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:03 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 65.5%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleJan 22, 26, 5:20 AM UTCJan 30, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- The National Court of Spain has opened preliminary proceedings against former president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero for his alleged collaboration with the criminal structure of the regime of Nicolás Maduro, following a lawsuit filed by the organization Hazte Oír.
- This market resolves YES if Zapatero is formally tried (indicted and arraigned) in any court of law—Spanish, U.S., or international—for crimes related to his involvement with Maduro's government.
- This includes charges such as drug trafficking, money laundering, or membership in a criminal organization.
- The market resolves NO if preliminary proceedings are dismissed, closed without charges, or if no formal trial occurs by a specified deadline.
- Resolution will be determined by official court documents and credible news reporting from major outlets covering Spanish and international legal proceedings.
