Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 10:52 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 93%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleMar 30, 26, 12:33 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 11:31 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves according to this Polymarket:
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Braden Eric Peters (known as Clavicular) is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Clavicular is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison.
- Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
- Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
