Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleMar 30, 26, 12:33 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 11:31 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Clavicular sentenced to prison?
PolymarketLindsay Clancy sentenced to prison time in 2026?
PolymarketZhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?
PolymarketAndrew Mountbatten-Windsor sentenced to prison in 2026?
FutuurWill Gustavo Petro be sentenced to prison before January 1, 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Clavicular be charged with another felony?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves according to this Polymarket:
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Braden Eric Peters (known as Clavicular) is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Clavicular is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison.
- Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
- Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
Open markets
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+3.0pt86.1%
- Yes-3.0pt13.9%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $253.8K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-1.0pt86%
- November 30,-0.5pt85%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jul 1, 2027-11.0pt37%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-19.0pt35%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-20.0pt35%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt19.8%
- $1.75T–$2.0T18.9%
- $1.5T–$1.75T17.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- How many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Space Exploration Technologies' Market Cap end of September 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for [Polymarket] Clavicular sentenced to prison??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 86% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does [Polymarket] Clavicular sentenced to prison? resolve?
- [Polymarket] Clavicular sentenced to prison? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is [Polymarket] Clavicular sentenced to prison? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves according to this Polymarket: