Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 97%
Forecasters
39
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 13, 26, 7:43 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will OpenAI go public NOT via an IPO?
Manifold Markets1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic go public NOT via an IPO?
Manifold MarketsWill any existing generative AI unicorn go public by 2027?
Manifold MarketsCompanies to go public in 2026
FutuurWill Discord go public by the end of 2026?
FutuurRules
Resolution criteria
- OpenAI will be considered to have gone public in 2026 if it completes an initial public offering (IPO) and begins trading on a public stock exchange at any point during the calendar year 2026.
- This includes any IPO filing, pricing, and first day of trading occurring in 2026.
- The resolution will be verified through major financial news sources (Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, WSJ) and official SEC filings if the IPO occurs in the United States.
- OpenAI completed its recapitalization process to go from a non-profit to a for-profit in October 2025.
- According to a Reuters report from November, OpenAI was planning an IPO of up to $1 trillion as early as late 2026.
