FutuurCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probabilitySpaceX 91%Leader of 8 outcomes
Market quality
29 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$3.4K
Medium liquidityTraders
73
Comments
2
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many companies will go bankrupt this year?
Kalshi1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI go public in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI go public NOT via an IPO?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic go public NOT via an IPO?
Manifold MarketsWill Discord go public by the end of 2026?
FutuurRules
This market concerns which of the listed companies will publicly announce a plan to “go public” in calendar year 2026 (January 1, 2026, 00:00:00 UTC-3 through December 31, 2026, 23:59:59 UTC-3). “Going public” includes an IPO, direct listing, or any other method that results in the company’s shares becoming listed for public trading on a regulated stock exchange.
- For this market, the key trigger is an official announcement of a specific date (or a specific dated window) for the listing/first trading day within the calendar year 2026.
- Regulatory filings that do not disclose a date (e.g., confidential filings or undated registrations) do not qualify.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) is an official announcement by the company (e.g., an investor relations press release, official blog post, or an on-the-record statement by an authorized company representative) and/or an official notice from the relevant stock exchange confirming the scheduled listing/first trading date.
- If, during 2026, more than one listed company makes a qualifying dated announcement, both qualifying markets will resolve to 'Yes'.
- If none of the listed companies makes a qualifying dated announcement during 2026, all markets will resolve to “No”.
