Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 92.8%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleDec 7, 25, 4:28 AM UTCDec 7, 26, 4:28 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Anthropic go public NOT via an IPO?
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Manifold Markets1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.
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FutuurRules
OpenAI is a leading AI developer (GPT family of models) organized as OpenAI, L.L.C. and related entities.
- It has raised large private funding and engaged in discussions about public-market options. “Going public” can occur via routes other than a traditional underwritten registered IPO — for example, a direct listing, SPAC merger (de‑SPAC), or a merger/acquisition that results in OpenAI equity (or equity of the legal entity representing OpenAI’s primary AI business) becoming listed and tradable on public exchanges.
- Question (short description)
- Will OpenAI become a publicly listed company through a non‑IPO route (direct listing, SPAC/de‑SPAC merger, or merger/going‑public via a public company acquisition) by 11:59:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026?
- Target: OpenAI, Inc., OpenAI, L.L.C., or any legal entity whose equity represents OpenAI’s primary AI business/operating entity.
- Included non‑IPO routes: direct listing, SPAC merger (including reverse merger into a blank‑check company and completion of de‑SPAC), or merger/acquisition that results in OpenAI equity being listed and publicly tradable.
