Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 92.6%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleDec 7, 25, 4:28 AM UTCDec 7, 26, 4:28 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
OpenAI is a leading AI developer (GPT family of models) organized as OpenAI, L.L.C. and related entities.
- It has raised large private funding and engaged in discussions about public-market options. “Going public” can occur via routes other than a traditional underwritten registered IPO — for example, a direct listing, SPAC merger (de‑SPAC), or a merger/acquisition that results in OpenAI equity (or equity of the legal entity representing OpenAI’s primary AI business) becoming listed and tradable on public exchanges.
- Question (short description)
- Will OpenAI become a publicly listed company through a non‑IPO route (direct listing, SPAC/de‑SPAC merger, or merger/going‑public via a public company acquisition) by 11:59:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026?
- Target: OpenAI, Inc., OpenAI, L.L.C., or any legal entity whose equity represents OpenAI’s primary AI business/operating entity.
- Included non‑IPO routes: direct listing, SPAC merger (including reverse merger into a blank‑check company and completion of de‑SPAC), or merger/acquisition that results in OpenAI equity being listed and publicly tradable.
Open markets
Exchange
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Atpmatch MUSO 26 Ftiaamic
- AMIC+38.0pt78.4%
- FTIA-37.0pt21.6%
- Total Vol
- $5.4M
- 24h Vol
- $5.4M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 9pm EDT?
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,100 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $658.7K
- 24h Vol
- $637.4K
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Atpmatch MUSO 26 Bshecalc
- CALC76.7%
- BSHE+1.0pt23.3%
- Total Vol
- $534.5K
- 24h Vol
- $534.5K
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Jessica Pegula vs Emma Navarro Quarter Finals match
- Jessica Pegula76.8%
- Emma Navarro23.1%
- Total Vol
- $143.6K
- 24h Vol
- $499.1K
POLYMARKETBitcoin above ___ on September 9?
- 72,000+0.5pt100%
- 74,000+0.7pt100%
- 68,000+0.1pt100%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Ethereum above ___ on September 9?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 10?
- How high will BTC get in September?
- Wtamatch WUSO 26 Mandcgau
- Wtamatch WUSO 26 Qzheeryb
- BNB price range on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 11?
- What chain will LAPTOP launch on?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will OpenAI go public NOT via an IPO??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 93% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will OpenAI go public NOT via an IPO? resolve?
- Will OpenAI go public NOT via an IPO? is scheduled to resolve on December 7, 2026.
- How is Will OpenAI go public NOT via an IPO? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: OpenAI is a leading AI developer (GPT family of models) organized as OpenAI, L.L.C. and related entities.