Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95.2%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleDec 7, 25, 4:27 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:24 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will OpenAI go public NOT via an IPO?
Manifold Markets1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic go bankrupt or be dissolved as a result of a copyright case by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsCompanies to go public in 2026
FutuurWill OpenAI go public in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Discord go public by the end of 2026?
FutuurRules
Anthropic is a major AI developer (Claude family of models) that has discussed public-market options amid large private funding rounds and reported preparation with advisors.
- Media reports in late 2025 describe the company engaging counsel and banks and weighing an IPO, while Anthropic spokespeople have said no final decision or timing has been made. “Going public” could mean multiple routes beyond a traditional registered IPO — e.g., direct listing, SPAC merger (de-SPAC), or sale/merger into an existing public company — any of which would result in Anthropic’s equity being listed and tradable on U.S. or non‑U.S. public exchanges without a conventional underwritten IPO process.
- Question (short description)
- Will Anthropic become a publicly listed company through a non‑IPO route (direct listing, SPAC/de‑SPAC merger, or merger/going‑public via a public company acquisition) by 11:59:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026?
- Target company: Anthropic PBC (or any legal entity whose equity represents Anthropic’s primary AI business/operating entity).
- Non‑IPO routes included: direct listing, SPAC merger (including reverse merger into a blank‑check company and completion of de‑SPAC transaction), or merger/acquisition that results in Anthropic equity being listed and publicly tradable (e.g., merger into a publicly traded company that issues Anthropic equity to public markets).
