KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Before December 1, 2026 · —
Loading selected book…
—
Stored price
Before December 1, 2026 9.5%Leader of 4 outcomes
Before December 1, 2026 9.5%Market quality
39 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$4
Open interest
$4.1K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
— / —
Before December 1, 2026Spread
—
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Sep 22, 26, 3:00 PM UTCNov 1, 26, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Before September 1, 2026Lost
Before October 1, 2026Lost
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before December 1, 2026
Loading selected book…
—
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Mexico and _____ resume diplomatic relations in 2026?
FutuurUS crude oil exports in November
KalshiWill the US ban crude oil exports?
KalshiWill Nord Stream resume operations by 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
PolymarketUS military action against Cuba by which date?
PolymarketRules
If at least one export shipment of crude oil or refined petroleum products from Petróleos Mexicanos (“Pemex”) to Cuba is confirmed to have occurred before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:APBloombergReutersThe New York TimesAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABC NewsCBS NewsCNNFox NewsMSNBCNBC News
Rules for each outcome
- Before December 1, 2026
- If at least one export shipment of crude oil or refined petroleum products from Petróleos Mexicanos (“Pemex”) to Cuba is confirmed to have occurred before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before September 1, 2026
- If at least one export shipment of crude oil or refined petroleum products from Petróleos Mexicanos (“Pemex”) to Cuba is confirmed to have occurred before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before November 1, 2026
- If at least one export shipment of crude oil or refined petroleum products from Petróleos Mexicanos (“Pemex”) to Cuba is confirmed to have occurred before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before October 1, 2026
- If at least one export shipment of crude oil or refined petroleum products from Petróleos Mexicanos (“Pemex”) to Cuba is confirmed to have occurred before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.