KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Awaiting verified resolution
CoinRithm is waiting for provider-confirmed settlement before treating this market as resolved.
Current implied probability
Before December 1, 2026 12%Leader of 4 outcomes
Before December 1, 2026 12%Market quality
30 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Open interest
$4.1K
Medium open interestMarket data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Jun 23, 26, 4:00 PM UTCSep 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Before December 1, 202612%
Before November 1, 20266%
Before September 1, 2026Lost
Before October 1, 2026Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Mexico and _____ resume diplomatic relations in 2026?
FutuurUS crude oil exports in November
KalshiWill the US ban crude oil exports?
KalshiWill Nord Stream resume operations by 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS military action against Cuba by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
PolymarketRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
Settles via:APBloombergReutersThe New York TimesAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABC NewsCBS NewsCNNFox NewsMSNBCNBC News
Rules for each outcome
- Before December 1, 2026
- If at least one export shipment of crude oil or refined petroleum products from Petróleos Mexicanos (“Pemex”) to Cuba is confirmed to have occurred before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before September 1, 2026
- If at least one export shipment of crude oil or refined petroleum products from Petróleos Mexicanos (“Pemex”) to Cuba is confirmed to have occurred before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before November 1, 2026
- If at least one export shipment of crude oil or refined petroleum products from Petróleos Mexicanos (“Pemex”) to Cuba is confirmed to have occurred before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before October 1, 2026
- If at least one export shipment of crude oil or refined petroleum products from Petróleos Mexicanos (“Pemex”) to Cuba is confirmed to have occurred before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.