KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before October 1, 2026 12%+5.0ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
43 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$121
Liquidity
$2.7K
Medium liquiditySpread
6.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Jun 23, 26, 4:00 PM UTCOct 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Mexico and _____ resume diplomatic relations in 2026?
FutuurWill the US ban crude oil exports?
KalshiUS x Cuba diplomatic meeting by which date?
PolymarketWill the US attack Cuba before the 2026 midterm elections?
Manifold MarketsWill Brazil's April–September 2026 ferroniobium exports exceed 80 kt?
Manifold MarketsWill Brazil's April–September 2026 ferroniobium exports exceed 65 kt?
Manifold MarketsRules
If at least one export shipment of crude oil or refined petroleum products from Petróleos Mexicanos (“Pemex”) to Cuba is confirmed to have occurred before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:APBloombergReutersThe New York TimesAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABC NewsCBS NewsCNNFox NewsMSNBCNBC News
- If at least one export shipment of crude oil or refined petroleum products from Petróleos Mexicanos (“Pemex”) to Cuba is confirmed to have occurred before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If at least one export shipment of crude oil or refined petroleum products from Petróleos Mexicanos (“Pemex”) to Cuba is confirmed to have occurred before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
CommoditiesKALSHIOil Price (WTI) on Sep 8, 2026?
- Above $88.49+7.0pt99%
- Above $84.4999%
- Above $87.99+4.0pt99%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $302.5K
- 24h Vol
- $166.3K
POLYMARKETWhat will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?
- ↑ $90+35.5pt100%
- ↑ $85+5.7pt100%
- ↓ $90100%
+22 more outcomes
KALSHINatural gas price on September 08, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- Above $2.85099%
- Above $2.85598%
- Above $2.92596%
+67 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $95.3K
- 24h Vol
- $95.2K
KALSHIOil Price (WTI) on Sep 9, 2026?
- Above $85.99+7.0pt99%
- Above $85.4999%
- Above $84.9999%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $121K
- 24h Vol
- $87.8K
KALSHIDiesel prices this week
- Above $5.7099%
- Above $5.7299%
- Above $5.7499%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $56.5K
- 24h Vol
- $56.5K
KALSHIUS-Iran nuclear deal?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+6.0pt34.3%
- Before Jan 1, 2028+5.0pt25.3%
- Before Mar 1, 202711.1%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $7.9M
- How high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get in 2026?
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- Oil Price (WTI) on Sep 11, 2026?
- US gas prices this week
- Crude Oil’s next move: Pump to $120 or Dump to $55?
- Brent crude oil price on September 08, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- Copper price on September 08, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- Gold price on September 08, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in September 2026?
- How many PJM capacity emergency days will there be in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Mexico resume oil exports to Cuba??
- Kalshi prices Before October 1, 2026 at 12% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Mexico resume oil exports to Cuba? resolve?
- Will Mexico resume oil exports to Cuba? is scheduled to resolve on October 1, 2026.
- How is Will Mexico resume oil exports to Cuba? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If at least one export shipment of crude oil or refined petroleum products from Petróleos Mexicanos (“Pemex”) to Cuba is confirmed to have occurred before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.