Current community forecast
Oracle 100%Leader of 21 outcomes
Forecasters
152
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleNov 15, 25, 5:14 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
100%
100%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsAI Bubble (props)
Manifold MarketsAI bubble burst by which date?
PolymarketWill the AI bubble pop in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich bubble bursts first?
MyriadLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Is there an AI bubble? Which AI companies are going to drop when the bubble pops?
- Add your own companies, preferably at least loosely AI related
- Peak doesn’t have to be in 2026.
- Any 60% drop from ATH qualifies
- [cleaned up description as none of the pre-2026 stuff is relevant anymore]
- Update 2026-02-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Price measurement: Resolution will use close prices only (not intraday prices) when determining if a company has dropped >60% from its peak.
Open markets
EquitiesPOLYMARKETLargest Company end of December 2026?
- NVIDIA+1.5pt77.7%
- Apple+0.3pt13.6%
- Alphabet-0.5pt6.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6.8M
- 24h Vol
- $122.1K
LIMITLESSS&P 500 ETF (SPY) Up or Down - Daily
- No70%
- Yes30%
- Total Vol
- $94.5K
- 24h Vol
- $86.6K
KALSHIS&P close price end of 2026?
- 7,800 to 7,999.99+1.0pt17.5%
- 8,000 to 8,199.99-1.0pt14.6%
- 7,600 to 7,799.9910.7%
+24 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6.4M
LIMITLESSOccidental Petroleum (OXY) Up or Down - Daily
- Yes72.5%
- No27.5%
- Total Vol
- $40.4K
- 24h Vol
- $30.7K
LIMITLESSEQT Energy Company (EQT) Up or Down - Daily
- Yes72.5%
- No27.5%
- Total Vol
- $27.3K
- 24h Vol
- $25.5K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+1.2pt59.2%
- SpaceX-2.5pt38.8%
- OpenAI2%
+9 more outcomes
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Ford US vehicle sales volume in 2026
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- STRC hits $100 by…
- Boeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- S&P price on Sep 8, 2026 at 10am EDT?
- What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit Week of September 7 2026?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 8?
- ServiceTitan gross transaction volume in Q2
- What will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit Week of September 7 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for AI BUBBLE? Which AI companies will drop >60% from their peak in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Oracle at 100% as of September 7, 2026.
- When does AI BUBBLE? Which AI companies will drop >60% from their peak in 2026? resolve?
- AI BUBBLE? Which AI companies will drop >60% from their peak in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is AI BUBBLE? Which AI companies will drop >60% from their peak in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Is there an AI bubble? Which AI companies are going to drop when the bubble pops?