Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 90.7%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleFeb 9, 26, 4:29 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Rules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if the spot price of gold falls below $3,000 per troy ounce at any point during 2026.
- Resolution will be determined using the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) gold price or equivalent widely-recognized spot price sources such as MarketWatch or COMEX gold futures.
- The market resolves NO if gold remains at or above $3,000/oz throughout the entire calendar year 2026.
- As of February 9, 2026, gold is trading at $5,015/oz, having recently experienced significant volatility.
- Gold reached an all-time high of $5,595.42 on January 29, 2026, before pulling back sharply.
