Current community forecast
Viktor Orban (Hungary Prime Minister) 100%Leader of 13 outcomes
Forecasters
45
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleFeb 20, 26, 11:02 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
To count as out, the leader must make an official announcement by 11.59pm 31 December 2026 in their countries capitals time zone that they are leaving or intending to leave their role, or they have left their role for any reason.
- Update 2026-02-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For leaders with elections: they must have left the role by the deadline (not just announced intention to leave).
- If a leader loses an election but remains in office during coalition negotiations, they do not count as "out" until they have actually left the role.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — Which leaders will leave office in 2026? · Christopher Luxon 46%
