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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Which World Leaders will be out in 2026?
Manifold Markets

Which World Leaders will be out in 2026?

PoliticsAI6mo
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
Pedro Sanchez (Spain Prime Minister) 50.9%
Leader of 13 outcomes
Forecasters

36

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated yesterday

Stale
Feb 20, 26, 11:02 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Pedro Sanchez (Spain Prime Minister)51%

Rules

To count as out, the leader must make an official announcement by 11.59pm 31 December 2026 in their countries capitals time zone that they are leaving or intending to leave their role, or they have left their role for any reason.

Manifold Markets
  • Update 2026-02-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For leaders with elections: they must have left the role by the deadline (not just announced intention to leave).
  • If a leader loses an election but remains in office during coalition negotiations, they do not count as "out" until they have actually left the role.

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Active in these topics

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Rules

To count as out, the leader must make an official announcement by 11.59pm 31 December 2026 in their countries capitals time zone that they are leaving or intending to leave their role, or they have left their role for any reason.

Manifold Markets
  • Update 2026-02-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For leaders with elections: they must have left the role by the deadline (not just announced intention to leave).
  • If a leader loses an election but remains in office during coalition negotiations, they do not count as "out" until they have actually left the role.