Current community forecast
Viktor Orban (Hungary Prime Minister) 100%Leader of 13 outcomes
Forecasters
40
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleFeb 20, 26, 11:02 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
100%
Rules
To count as out, the leader must make an official announcement by 11.59pm 31 December 2026 in their countries capitals time zone that they are leaving or intending to leave their role, or they have left their role for any reason.
- Update 2026-02-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For leaders with elections: they must have left the role by the deadline (not just announced intention to leave).
- If a leader loses an election but remains in office during coalition negotiations, they do not count as "out" until they have actually left the role.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — Which leaders will leave office in 2026? · Keir Starmer 100%
- Also available on Gemini — Which world leaders will leave office in 2026? · Viktor Orbán 100%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which World Leaders will be out in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Viktor Orban (Hungary Prime Minister) at 100% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does Which World Leaders will be out in 2026? resolve?
- Which World Leaders will be out in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Which World Leaders will be out in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: To count as out, the leader must make an official announcement by 11.59pm 31 December 2026 in their countries capitals time zone that they are leaving or intending to leave their role, or they have left their role for any reason.
- Where else is Which World Leaders will be out in 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi, Gemini.