PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSettled by the venue, market by market
Resolved: Jul 23, 2026, 11:39 PM
This event has no single winner. The venue settled each market separately; each market shows its own result.
Probability Timeline
May 310%
June 305%
March 310%
April 300%
September 30100%
July 31100%
September 30Won
July 31Won
May 31Lost
June 30Lost
March 31Lost
April 30Lost
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Novooleksandrivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.353724° N, 37.072518° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
- Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.