PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Current implied probability
September 30 100%+2.4ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
42 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$3.1K
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownSpread
0.1 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+73.0 pts
Market data
Updated 39 days ago
StaleMar 23, 26, 10:35 PMMay 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
May 310%
June 305%
March 310%
April 300%
September 30100%
July 31100%
100%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Novooleksandrivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.353724° N, 37.072518° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
- Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.