PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: September 30
Resolved: Jul 31, 2026, 10:46 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Aug 1, 2026, 7:20 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
September 30 100%+1.1ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$3.8K
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownSpread
0.1 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+35.0 pts
Market data
Updated 38 days ago
StaleFeb 6, 26, 12:21 AM UTCSep 30, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Probability Timeline
September 30100%
May 310%
June 300%
February 280%
March 310%
April 300%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, (47°39'45.5"N 36°15'13.1"E) by the named outcome, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Huliaipole will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- If the area is not shaded red by the named outcome, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.