PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 1, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
October 31 45%+4.0pt
Market quality
39 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$21.1K
Liquidity
$25.2K
High liquidityBid / Ask
- / 0.1%
Comments
0
7d Change
-8.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJul 24, 26, 7:12 PMNov 1, 26, 3:59 AM
Trends
0%
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.450545° N, 37.181493° E in Novyi Donbas, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
- The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.