PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 30%+0.5pt
Market quality
70 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$18.3K
Liquidity
$15.4K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
5.1% / 6.0%
Spread
0.9 pt
Tight spreadComments
1
7d Change
+0.6 pts
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
May 28, 26, 7:41 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kup'yans'k-Pivdennyi railroad station (49.712076° N, 37.606819° E) located on Pryvokzalna vulytsia, in Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
- The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
Open markets
Russia / UkrainePOLYMARKETNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- December 31-21.0pt25%
- October 31-26.5pt14%
- August 31-28.1pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $5.8M
- 24h Vol
- $704.9K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)71%
- New People (NL)-0.2pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.3pt6%
+31 more outcomes
POLYMARKETNATO downs another Russian drone by which date?
- August 31+1.0pt100%
- July 31-1.4pt0%
- Total Vol
- $251.3K
- 24h Vol
- $90.7K
POLYMARKETWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by which date?
- December 31+2.0pt51%
- October 31-0.5pt21%
- September 309%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPutin out as President of Russia by which date?
- June 30, 202713%
- December8%
- September 30,2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $21.4M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
- December 31-1.0pt17%
- October 318%
- May 310%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Russia capture Kupiansk by which date??
- Polymarket prices December 31 at 30% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does Will Russia capture Kupiansk by which date? resolve?
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk by which date? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Russia capture Kupiansk by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kup'yans'k-Pivdennyi railroad station (49.712076° N, 37.606819° E) located on Pryvokzalna vulytsia, in Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.