Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 21, 2026, 11:15 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastBy the end of 2027 95%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
6
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleDec 17, 25, 3:47 PM UTCDec 30, 27, 3:34 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolution criteria
- Each option will resolve YES if, at any time before the stated deadline, the Armed Forces of Ukraine militarily capture the city of Kupyansk.
- In order to trigger a YES resolution, the Armed Forces of Ukraine must simultaneously control the Kupiansk City Council building (49.713107, 37.613362) and Kupiansk bus station (49.709291, 37.611808) according to a majority of the following sources:
- UkrDailyUpdate
- Anatoly Radov
- Each option will otherwise resolve NO once the stated deadline passes.
