Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by which date?
0.3 pts (24h)GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / Ukraine2mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
December 31 · —
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Stored reference
December 31 3%Leader of 6 outcomes
December 31 3%Market quality
52 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$7.3
Liquidity
$4.3K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$25.1K
Bid / Ask
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December 31Spread
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Comments
168
7d Change
+0.3 pts
Market data
Updated 36 minutes ago
Nov 4, 25, 3:54 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
December 31Lost
January 31Lost
June 30Lost
Before close: 0% ·
March 31Lost
Before close: 0% ·
November 30Lost
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
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Market depth · December 31
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast, (49.713460° N, 37.614763° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
- The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map.
- If all area within the municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
- For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality.