PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 5%+0.8ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
69 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$5.6K
Liquidity
$15.1K
Medium liquiditySpread
0.4 pt
Tight spreadComments
169
7d Change
-0.7 pts
Market data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Nov 4, 25, 3:54 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by the named outcome, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.
- Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- If the area is not shaded red by the named outcome, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
- The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line.
- If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
- For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- August 22+1.8pt100%
- August 25+1.1pt97%
- August 31+1.0pt89%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.7M
- 24h Vol
- $587.3K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+1.9pt69%
- October 31-0.5pt42%
- September 3027%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETNATO downs another Russian drone by which date?
- August 31100%
- July 31-1.4pt0%
- Total Vol
- $491K
- 24h Vol
- $239.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)-1.0pt70%
- New People (NL)+2.1pt24%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.3pt5%
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- No+1.0pt88.1%
- Yes-1.0pt11.9%
- Total Vol
- $3M
- 24h Vol
- $113.9K
POLYMARKETBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt19%
- October 31-3.0pt10%
- September 30-1.0pt8%
+9 more outcomes
- Will Iran target a Arab country on?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by which date??
- Polymarket prices December 31 at 5% as of August 23, 2026.
- When does Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by which date? resolve?
- Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by which date? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by the named outcome, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.