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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Russia / Ukraine
  3. Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?

Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?

0.2% (24h)One-OffRussia / Ukraine18d
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
December 31
December 31 15%-1.0%
Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality

89 / 100

High quality
24h Volume

$93.4K

Liquidity

$29.5K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

1.3% / 1.4%

Spread

7.7%

Moderate spread
7d Change

-0.6%

Market data

Updated 9 minutes ago

Nov 4, 25, 3:54 PMJun 30, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
November 30
November 30
0%
December 31
December 31
0%
March 31
March 31
0%
January 31
January 31
0%

Selected outcome

December 3115%

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
  • If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
  • The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line.
  • If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
  • For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality.

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Active in these topics

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Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
  • If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
  • The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line.
  • If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
  • For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality.