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Data as of Sep 1, 2026, 8:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
October 31 9%-31.0ptLeader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
30 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$60
Liquidity
$563.3
Low liquiditySpread
5.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
97
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingFeb 11, 26, 10:51 PMNov 1, 26, 3:59 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
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0%
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Ternuvate, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, (47.8301° N, 36.1268° E) between market creation and the named outcome, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
- Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Open markets
Russia / UkrainePOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+2.0pt71.3%
- New People (NL)-2.4pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.3pt5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $24.4M
- 24h Vol
- $281.7K
POLYMARKETNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- December 3124%
- October 31-2.0pt12%
- December 31, 2025-0.1pt0%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPutin out as President of Russia by which date?
- June 30, 2027-1.0pt14%
- December7%
- September 30,2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $22.3M
POLYMARKETRussia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
- No+0.1pt99%
- Yes-0.1pt1%
- Total Vol
- $349.9K
- 24h Vol
- $51.7K
POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- June 30,+0.5pt45.5%
- March 31,-1.5pt33%
- December 31-3.5pt14.3%
+4 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRussia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
- Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)+4.0pt89.1%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.3pt6.9%
- New People (NL)-2.3pt4%
+5 more outcomes
- Will Russia enter Hannivka by which date?
- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by which date?
- United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
- Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by which date?
- Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
- Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by which date??
- Polymarket prices October 31 at 9% as of September 1, 2026.
- When does Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by which date? resolve?
- Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by which date? is scheduled to resolve on November 1, 2026.
- How is Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Ternuvate, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, (47.8301° N, 36.1268° E) between market creation and the named outcome, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.