PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: October 31
Resolved: Sep 8, 2026, 8:35 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
October 31
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
98%
ConsensusData quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 9, 2026, 7:07 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
July 310%
October 31100%
October 31Won
May 31Lost
July 31Lost
August 31Lost
February 28Lost
March 31Lost
April 30Lost
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Ternuvate, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, (47.8301° N, 36.1268° E) between market creation and the named outcome, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
- Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.