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Data as of Sep 1, 2026, 6:30 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
December 31 11%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
12 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$2.1K
Low liquidityComments
6
7d Change
-0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJan 31, 26, 12:21 AMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Ternuvate, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, (47.8301° N, 36.1268° E) by the named outcome, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Ternuvate will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- If the area is not shaded red by the named outcome, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by which date??
- Polymarket prices December 31 at 11% as of September 1, 2026.
- When does Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by which date? resolve?
- Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by which date? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Ternuvate, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, (47.8301° N, 36.1268° E) by the named outcome, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.