PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityDecember 31 21%+2.5pt
Market quality
91 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$1.7K
Liquidity
$29.3K
High liquidityBid / Ask
7.0% / 9.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+2.5%
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Jul 8, 26, 3:36 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
December 3121%
Volume trend
$1.7kJul 820d of dataJul 27
Related Markets
Will Russia capture Vodianske by which date?
$15.8KDecember 31: 50%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by which date?
$4.9KDecember 31: 47%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will Russia capture Lyman by which date?
$2.3KDecember 31: 51%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Year of Elon Musk's next visit to Russia
$154.32025: 0%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Who will launch the first crewed space station with functioning artificial gravity (via rotation)?
$24.9US Company and/or NASA: 16.1%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill there be official peace talks involving both Putin and Zelenskyy before Aug 2026?
$1.6KYes: 5.3%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSActive in these topics
Related News
NVIDIA Vera CPU Powers Faster Chip Design for Next-Gen GPUsBlockchain.NewsNVIDIA, Applied Materials Accelerate Semiconductor InnovationBlockchain.NewsNVIDIA (NVDA) Expands Toolkit With PhysicsNeMo and CUDA-XBlockchain.News
NAVER, NVIDIA, Brookfield to Triple Korea AI Factory to 200 MW by 2028Blockchain.News
Google Ships New Gemini Flash Models, But Pro Is Still MissingDecrypt
Google Is Building an AI Chip Just for Gemini—And Investors Already Moved On ItDecryptRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the railroad station (48.578748° N, 37.616899° E) located in Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.