PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probability
December 31 26%-0.5%Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
68 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$350.2
Liquidity
$16.2K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
25.0% / 26.0%
Spread
4.0%
Moderate spread7d Change
+1.0%
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Dec 29, 25, 10:05 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
December 3126%
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Stepnohirsk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Stepnohirsk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- If the area is not shaded red by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.