PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: August 31
Resolved: Aug 5, 2026, 7:02 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current implied probability
August 31 100%+2.5ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$642.6
Liquidity
$5.9K
Medium liquiditySpread
0.1 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 27 days ago
StaleMar 23, 26, 10:29 PMApr 30, 26, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
May 310%
July 313%
March 310%
April 300%
August 31100%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Myrne, Donetsk Oblast, (48.367306° N, 37.007880° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
- Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.