KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above $99,999.99 25%-1.0ptLeader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
80 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$6.7K
Liquidity
$1.2M
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 1 minute ago
Jan 2, 26, 11:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $99999.99 starting 01/02/2026 06:00 PM and before Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:CF Benchmarks
- The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation.
- The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values.
- If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves.
- If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.
- If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $109999.99 starting 01/02/2026 06:00 PM and before Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — Bitcoin price at the end of 2026 · 75,000 to 79,999.99 11%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Bitcoin price in 2026? · $80K 100%
- Also available on Polymarket — What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? · ↓ 60,000 100%