Current implied probability
Above $99,999.99 13%-1.0%Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$6.7K
Liquidity
$1.1M
High liquidityBid / Ask
12.0% / 13.0%
Spread
8.3%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Jan 2, 26, 11:00 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Above $99,999.9913%
Compare venues· Above $99,999.99
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall86% match · verified | High | 100% | — | $107K | $2.3M | 17 minutes ago | Open → |
 Kalshi80% match · linked | Medium | 11% | — | $43.5K | $6.3M | 1 minute ago | Open → |
| KalshiThis page | Medium | 13% | — | $6.7K | $1.1M | 17 minutes ago | |
 Manifold Markets80% match · linked | — | 70% | — | — | — | 19 hours ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets80% match · linked | — | 100% | — | — | — | 15 hours ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets80% match · linked | — | 100% | — | — | — | 15 hours ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
3.0%5mo
+10.4%100%
+2.5%100%
+7.5%100%
+41 more outcomes
100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$49.9M
24h Vol$107K
POLYMARKETAlso available on Kalshi
Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
1.1%5mo
-2.3%11%
-0.5%10%
+0.3%9%
+25 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$29.2M
24h Vol$43.5K
KALSHIAlso available on Manifold Markets
What will Bitcoin's price reach by the end of 2026? (Crypto BTC)
5mo
100%
100%
100%
+13 more outcomes
Community forecast42 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Bitcoin price in 2026?
5mo
100%
100%
100%
+19 more outcomes
Community forecast77 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Price of Bitcoin at the end of 2026
5mo
+0.5%70.2%
+0.2%12%
+0.2%11.6%
+6 more outcomes
Community forecast11 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $99999.99 starting 01/02/2026 06:00 PM and before Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation.
- The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values.
- If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves.
- If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No.
- The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$6.0k26.1%POLYMARKETWill Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? — Yesbtc3333d ago
POLYMARKETWill Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? — Yesbtc3333d ago$4.4k57.0%POLYMARKETWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? — NoJnStTrdrBnusFnd5d ago
POLYMARKETWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? — NoJnStTrdrBnusFnd5d ago$1.5k79.0%POLYMARKETWill Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? — Nodatamint5d ago
POLYMARKETWill Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? — Nodatamint5d ago$3.8k95.5%KALSHI35,000 to 39,999.99 — No5d ago
KALSHI35,000 to 39,999.99 — No5d ago$4.6k95.5%KALSHI35,000 to 39,999.99 — No5d ago
KALSHI35,000 to 39,999.99 — No5d ago$1.0k93.7%KALSHI45,000 to 49,999.99 — No5d ago
KALSHI45,000 to 49,999.99 — No5d ago$1.7k68.0%POLYMARKETWill Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? — No0x9e3e…f8826d ago
POLYMARKETWill Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? — No0x9e3e…f8826d ago$1.9k67.0%POLYMARKETWill Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? — NoJnStTrdrBnusFnd6d ago
POLYMARKETWill Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? — NoJnStTrdrBnusFnd6d agoVolume trend
$6.7kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $99999.99 starting 01/02/2026 06:00 PM and before Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation.
- The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values.
- If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves.
- If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No.
- The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.