KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Below 45 14%Leader of 14 outcomes
Market quality
38 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$2.7K
Medium liquiditySpread
7.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 14 minutes ago
May 15, 26, 9:00 PM UTCFeb 1, 29, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
If the Democratic party has the named outcome Senate seats on Feb 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:United States Congress
- If the Democratic party has exactly 45 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Democratic party has exactly 46 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Democratic party has exactly 47 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Democratic party has exactly 48 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Democratic party has exactly 49 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
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+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
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+39 more outcomes
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KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
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- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Democratic Senate Seat Count (2028)?
- Kalshi prices Below 45 at 14% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Democratic Senate Seat Count (2028) resolve?
- Democratic Senate Seat Count (2028) is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2029.
- How is Democratic Senate Seat Count (2028) settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Democratic party has the named outcome Senate seats on Feb 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.