KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Texas 16.2%Leader of 17 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
59 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$19.1K
Liquidity
$251.6K
High liquidityMarket data
Updated 15 minutes ago
May 30, 26, 9:30 PMJan 3, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
Rules
If Minnesota has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:official state or local election division websitesthe official electoral commissions or secretaries of state for each jurisdiction holding elections withinofficial government websites of the relevant jurisdictionsThe New York Timesthe Associated PressReutersBloomberg NewsCNNNBC NewsABC NewsCBS NewsFox NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe Washington PostPoliticoFiveThirtyEightBallotpedia
- Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers.
- For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage.
- For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts.
- For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used.
- If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used.
Prediction Source Comparison
CoinRithm reference Texas 17% · 3 venues · 2 pt band
Open markets
PoliticsKALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez17%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt14.2%
+44 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $188.3M
- 24h Vol
- $693.3K
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+3.2pt21%
- Gavin Newsom15%
- Jon Ossoff+0.6pt15%
+125 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.0pt63.6%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+0.6pt33.3%
- Renan Santos-2.0pt3%
+29 more outcomes
KALSHISouth Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?
- Darline Graham-4.0pt60.5%
- Ralph Norman+4.0pt31.2%
- Pamela Evette0.9%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $13.9M
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance+1.8pt22%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.4pt13%
- Marco Rubio-0.6pt11%
+125 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.49%
- J.D. Vance+0.1pt47%
- Marco Rubio-0.5pt21%
+125 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Closest Senate race in 2026??
- Kalshi prices Texas at 16% as of August 22, 2026.
- When does Closest Senate race in 2026? resolve?
- Closest Senate race in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 3, 2027.
- How is Closest Senate race in 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Minnesota has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is Closest Senate race in 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket, PredictIt.