Current implied probability
Ohio 12%Leader of 15 outcomes
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.3K
Liquidity
$117.8K
High liquidityBid / Ask
10.0% / 11.0%
Spread
10.0%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Sep 24, 25, 2:00 PMJan 3, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Ohio12%
CoinRithm referenceTexas17%· 2 venues· ±7 pts
MaineNew MexicoAlaska
POLYMARKET
Also available on Polymarket
Closest Senate Race?
23.0%3mo
+4.0%27%
-10.0%23%
-4.5%22%
+13 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$7K
24h Vol$6.2K
POLYMARKETRules
If Minnesota has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers.
- For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage.
- For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts.
- For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used.
- If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$2.3kJul 27d of dataJul 8
Related Markets
Presidential Election Winner 2028
$3MJD Vance: 20%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will Graham Platner drop out?
$1.9MBefore Jul 14, 2026: 94%KALSHI
KALSHI
Next French Presidential Election
$1.7MMarine Le Pen: 29%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
$1.4MGavin Newsom: 18%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
2028 Democratic presidential nominee
$1.2MGraham Platner: 0%KALSHI
KALSHI
2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
$240.2KJames Talarico: 1%KALSHI
KALSHIActive in these topics
Related News
Ripple, Coinbase among top donors in crypto’s $189 million election spending: reportThe Block
Democrats ramp up election-integrity push as Polymarket keeps Bardella at 25.5%Blockchain.News
Colorado Dem upset jolts 2028 chatter as Polymarket puts Newsom at 20.5%Blockchain.News
Colorado primary surprise as Polymarket keeps Maduro favored at 80%Blockchain.News
Ripple-backed PACs fuel record $189M crypto election spendingCrypto News
Eizenkot kicks off election bid as Polymarket puts him at 40% to lead IsraelBlockchain.NewsRules
If Minnesota has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers.
- For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage.
- For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts.
- For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used.
- If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used.