KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Texas · —
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Stored price
Texas 13.5%Leader of 20 outcomes
Texas 13.5%Market quality
86 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$26.6K
Open interest
$737.5K
High open interestBid / Ask
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TexasSpread
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Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
May 15, 26, 9:00 PM UTCJan 3, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Texas
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Closest Senate Race?
PolymarketWhich party will win the 2026 Nebraska Senate race?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the 2026 Kansas Senate race?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the 2026 Texas Senate race?
Manifold MarketsGOP's worst Great Plains Senate Race (IA, NE, KS)?
PolymarketDems' best tossup Senate race?
PolymarketRules
If Texas has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:official state or local election division websitesthe official electoral commissions or secretaries of state for each jurisdiction holding elections withinofficial government websites of the relevant jurisdictionsThe New York Timesthe Associated PressReutersBloomberg NewsCNNNBC NewsABC NewsCBS NewsFox NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe Washington PostPoliticoFiveThirtyEightBallotpedia
- Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No.
Rules for each outcome
- Texas
- If Texas has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Iowa
- If Iowa has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Kansas
- If Kansas has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Maine
- If Maine has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Ohio
- If Ohio has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Michigan
- If Michigan has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Alaska
- If Alaska has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Nebraska
- If Nebraska has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- South Carolina
- If South Carolina has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Minnesota
- If Minnesota has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Florida
- If Florida has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- New Hampshire
- If New Hampshire has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Mississippi
- If Mississippi has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Montana
- If Montana has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Georgia
- If Georgia has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- North Carolina
- If North Carolina has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- South Dakota
- If South Dakota has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Idaho
- If Idaho has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Arkansas
- If Arkansas has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Louisiana
- If Louisiana has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.