Which party will hold the most seats in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?
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Current community forecastOption 1 86.6%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
530
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Community forecast
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 137 days ago
StaleFeb 26, 25, 1:07 AM UTCNov 5, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
86.6%
13.3%
0.1%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled for Tuesday, November 3.
- The US House of Representatives has 435 seats. [As of early 2025](https://ballotpedia.org/119th_United_States_Congress), 218 are held by members of the Republican Party, 215 are held by Democrats, and 2 are vacant.
- Representatives are elected for 2-year terms, and elections are held every two years; so all of the seats are up for contest in every election.
- The winners of the 2026 House elections will join the Senate to form the 120th Congress.
- This question will resolve as the party that holds more House of Representatives seats than any other party in the 120th Congress, which is the one scheduled to be elected November 3, 2026 and take office in January 3, 2027.
- Independent representatives will be counted as part of the party they caucus with.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which party will hold the most seats in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 elections??
- Metaculus prices Option 1 at 87% as of April 27, 2026.
- When does Which party will hold the most seats in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 elections? resolve?
- Which party will hold the most seats in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 elections? is scheduled to resolve on November 5, 2026.
- How is Which party will hold the most seats in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 elections? settled?
- Metaculus settles this market as follows: The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled for Tuesday, November 3.