Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
1.0 pts (24h)One-OffPoliticsElectionLatin America1mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 93%+1.0pt
Market quality
79 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$11.9K
Liquidity
$79.3K
High liquidityBid / Ask
6.0% / 8.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
33
7d Change
-5.5 pts
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Sep 18, 25, 8:02 PMOct 4, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Rules
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
- A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
- This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for CoinRithm reference is 7%. Quotes span about 6 percentage points between the widest venues.
CoinRithm reference 7% · 2 venues · 6 pt venue spread
