How many independents will be elected to Congress in the midterms?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms2mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
At least 1 · —
Loading selected book…
—
Stored price
At least 1 34.5%Market line of 4 lines
At least 1 34.5%Market quality
35 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Open interest
$1.4K
Low open interestBid / Ask
— / —
At least 1Spread
—
Market data
Updated 35 minutes ago
Aug 12, 26, 4:00 PM UTCJan 3, 27, 2:59 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · At least 1
Loading selected book…
—
Rules
If the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats is at least 1 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:state governments
- A candidate is considered unaffiliated with a political party if the relevant election authority identifies the candidate as Independent, Nonpartisan, No Party Preference, No Party Affiliation, Unaffiliated, by petition without a party designation, or an equivalent no-party designation. Candidates identified with a political party do not count. Endorsements and post-election caucus affiliation do not affect the count.
Rules for each outcome
- At least 1
- If the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats is at least 1 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 2
- If the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats is at least 2 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 3
- If the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats is at least 3 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 4
- If the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats is at least 4 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes.
