Will the California billionaire wealth tax appear on the ballot?
One-OffPoliticsElectionBusiness & Corporate1mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Yes 98%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$47.8K
High liquidityBid / Ask
97.5% / 98.6%
Spread
1.1 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Nov 1, 25, 2:00 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will The California Billionaire Wealth Tax pass if it is on the ballot in 2026?
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PolymarketWill the California billionaire wealth tax pass?
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KalshiCalifornia wealth tax defeats opposing propositions?
PolymarketRules
If a one-time tax on billionaires ballot initiative has been officially held in California before Nov 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:California Secretary of Staterelevant Secretary of State officeofficial government websites for areathe Associated PressReutersThe New York TimesThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalBloomberg NewsBBC NewsFinancial TimesThe GuardianPoliticoCNNFox NewsABC NewsCBS NewsNBC News
- For the referendum to be "officially held," voting must have commenced and concluded according to the established electoral process, votes must have been cast and are in the process of being counted or have been counted, and the referendum/ballot initiative must appear on official ballots distributed to eligible voters.
- Voting must have officially ended by the specified date for the market to resolve Yes.
- The following do NOT constitute "officially held": mere scheduling or announcement of the referendum for future voting, signature gathering or petition phases for ballot initiatives, court challenges or legal proceedings about the referendum, preliminary or unofficial results announcements, or recounts and post-election audits (the initial voting process determines resolution).
- The referendum must be officially held within the specified geographic area, which can range from supranational to local jurisdictions or even "none" for certain special cases.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the California billionaire wealth tax appear on the ballot??
- Kalshi prices Yes at 98% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will the California billionaire wealth tax appear on the ballot? resolve?
- Will the California billionaire wealth tax appear on the ballot? is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2026.
- How is Will the California billionaire wealth tax appear on the ballot? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If a one-time tax on billionaires ballot initiative has been officially held in California before Nov 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.