Will the California billionaire wealth tax appear on the ballot?
One-OffPoliticsElectionBusiness & Corporate3mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 91%
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$47.2K
High liquidityBid / Ask
91.5% / 95.9%
Spread
4.8%
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 25 minutes ago
Nov 1, 25, 2:00 PMNov 3, 26, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes91%
Compare venues· Yes
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall61% match · verified | Medium | 100% | — | $3K | $0 | 29 days ago | Open → |
| KalshiThis page | Low | 91% | — | $0 | $47.2K | 25 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?
38.5%Closed
Resolved
Yes (100%)
+0.4%100%
-0.4%0%
63 • Medium qualityTight spreadLow liquidity
Total Vol$247.1K
24h Vol$3K
POLYMARKETRules
If a one-time tax on billionaires ballot initiative has been officially held in California before Nov 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For the referendum to be "officially held," voting must have commenced and concluded according to the established electoral process, votes must have been cast and are in the process of being counted or have been counted, and the referendum/ballot initiative must appear on official ballots distributed to eligible voters.
- Voting must have officially ended by the specified date for the market to resolve Yes.
- The following do NOT constitute "officially held": mere scheduling or announcement of the referendum for future voting, signature gathering or petition phases for ballot initiatives, court challenges or legal proceedings about the referendum, preliminary or unofficial results announcements, or recounts and post-election audits (the initial voting process determines resolution).
- The referendum must be officially held within the specified geographic area, which can range from supranational to local jurisdictions or even "none" for certain special cases.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$10Jul 222d of dataJul 25
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If a one-time tax on billionaires ballot initiative has been officially held in California before Nov 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For the referendum to be "officially held," voting must have commenced and concluded according to the established electoral process, votes must have been cast and are in the process of being counted or have been counted, and the referendum/ballot initiative must appear on official ballots distributed to eligible voters.
- Voting must have officially ended by the specified date for the market to resolve Yes.
- The following do NOT constitute "officially held": mere scheduling or announcement of the referendum for future voting, signature gathering or petition phases for ballot initiatives, court challenges or legal proceedings about the referendum, preliminary or unofficial results announcements, or recounts and post-election audits (the initial voting process determines resolution).
- The referendum must be officially held within the specified geographic area, which can range from supranational to local jurisdictions or even "none" for certain special cases.