Current implied probability
Yes 88%-0.0%
Market quality
60 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$16
Liquidity
$15.7K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
86.0% / 89.0%
Spread
3.5%
Moderate spread7d Change
-4.5%
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Oct 24, 25, 7:56 PMJun 25, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Selected outcome
Yes88%
Also available on Kalshi
Will the California billionaire wealth tax appear on the ballot?
2.0%4mo
-2.0%84%
16%
44 • Low qualityModerate spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$734.3
24h Vol$10.9
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot for the November 3, 2026 election, that proposes a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent), by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Certification means the initiative is officially approved by the California Secretary of State for a statewide ballot.
- The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California.
- If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Related Markets
Peru Election 2nd Round: Margin of Victory? (0.1% brackets)
$837.8KFujimori 0.2–0.3%: 83%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
$802.4KGavin Newsom: 23%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
$294KBenjamin Netanyahu: 38%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
2028 Democratic presidential nominee
$4.9KGraham Platner: 1%KALSHI
KALSHI
Who will win the 2026 Los Angeles City Council election for district 1
$4.5KEunisses Hernandez (incumbent): 93.5%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSActive in these topics
Related News
Former Epstein assistant Lesley Groff appears before House panel Crypto News
Russia election odds hold with United Russia leading at ~54.5%Blockchain.News
Peru 2nd Round Bet Focus Narrows to Fujimori Narrow VictoryBlockchain.News%20cryptocurrency%20website%20displayed%20on%20the%20smartphone%20screen.jpg)
Burnham Favored in Makerfield By-Election as Markets React to Rising OddsBlockchain.News
Crypto PACs Shape Bets on Peru’s 2026 RaceBlockchain.News
New Defend Developers PAC targets key races with DeFi on the lineCrypto NewsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot for the November 3, 2026 election, that proposes a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent), by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Certification means the initiative is officially approved by the California Secretary of State for a statewide ballot.
- The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California.
- If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.