Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?
38.5% (24h)One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElectionBusiness & Corporate
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (100%)
Resolved: Jun 26, 2026, 7:04 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Yes
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
62%
ConsensusCurrent implied probabilityYes 100%+0.4%
Market quality
63 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$3K
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
99.9% / 100.0%
Spread
0.1%
Tight spread7d Change
+40.5%
Market data
Updated 29 days ago
StaleOct 24, 25, 7:48 PMJun 25, 26, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Yes100%
No0%
100%
0%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· Yes
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Medium | 100% | — | $3K | $0 | 29 days ago | |
 Kalshi61% match · verified | Low | 91% | — | $0 | $47.2K | 17 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Kalshi
Will the California billionaire wealth tax appear on the ballot?
3mo
91%
9%
49 • Low qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$318.5K
24h Vol$0
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot for the November 3, 2026 election, that proposes a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent), by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Certification means the initiative is officially approved by the California Secretary of State for a statewide ballot.
- The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California.
- If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot for the November 3, 2026 election, that proposes a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent), by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Certification means the initiative is officially approved by the California Secretary of State for a statewide ballot.
- The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California.
- If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.