Will California’s billionaire tax take effect?
RegulationOne-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElectionBusiness & Corporate2moBefore Jan 1, 2027
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 27, 2026, 9:41 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
No · —
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Stored price
No 80%
No 80%Market quality
46 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$15
Open interest
$5.6K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
— / —
NoSpread
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Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMay 16, 26, 9:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · No
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Initiative #25-0024A1 (2026 Billionaire Tax Act) pass in California in 2026?
ForecastExWill CA prop 40 billionaire tax get >50% of the vote
Manifold MarketsWill the California billionaire wealth tax pass?
Manifold MarketsWill the California billionaire wealth tax appear on the ballot?
KalshiWill The California Billionaire Wealth Tax pass if it is on the ballot in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Colorado's AI rules take effect before February 2027?
KalshiRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
Settles via:The Washington PostFox NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe GuardianABCBloomberg NewsCBSSouth China Morning PostNBCthe Associated PressThe VergeBBCAxiosCNNABC News AustraliaThe InformationSemaforMSNBCCBCReutersPoliticoThe New York Times
- For purposes of this market, California’s 2026 billionaire tax becomes legally operative only if the measure is approved by voters and is not superseded, blocked, or rendered inoperative by any higher-vote conflicting ballot measure approved at the same election. Reporting that the measure merely received more Yes than No votes does not qualify unless the report also indicates that the measure will become operative, enforceable, or legally effective. “Legally operative” does not require that any tax has been collected, paid, assessed, or become due. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
Rules for each outcome
- No
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.
- Yes
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.
