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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Regulation
  3. Will California’s billionaire tax take effect?
Will California’s billionaire tax take effect?

Will California’s billionaire tax take effect?

RegulationOne-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElectionBusiness & Corporate6mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 44%
Market quality

28 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$2.1

Liquidity

$15

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

45.0% / 50.0%

Spread

11.1%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 3 minutes ago

May 16, 26, 9:00 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes44%

Rules

If California’s 2026 billionaire tax will become legally operative after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • For purposes of this market, California’s 2026 billionaire tax becomes legally operative only if the measure is approved by voters and is not superseded, blocked, or rendered inoperative by any higher-vote conflicting ballot measure approved at the same election.
  • Reporting that the measure merely received more Yes than No votes does not qualify unless the report also indicates that the measure will become operative, enforceable, or legally effective. “Legally operative” does not require that any tax has been collected, paid, assessed, or become due.
  • Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market.
  • Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify.
  • Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.

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Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$62,675.41+1.63%EthereumETH$1,655.03+1.12%SolanaSOL$65.02+0.80%DogecoinDOGE$0.0849+0.99%XRPXRP$1.11-0.16%BNBBNB$595.69+1.23%

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Rules

If California’s 2026 billionaire tax will become legally operative after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • For purposes of this market, California’s 2026 billionaire tax becomes legally operative only if the measure is approved by voters and is not superseded, blocked, or rendered inoperative by any higher-vote conflicting ballot measure approved at the same election.
  • Reporting that the measure merely received more Yes than No votes does not qualify unless the report also indicates that the measure will become operative, enforceable, or legally effective. “Legally operative” does not require that any tax has been collected, paid, assessed, or become due.
  • Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market.
  • Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify.
  • Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.