Will California’s billionaire tax take effect?
RegulationOne-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElectionBusiness & Corporate3mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 71%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$4.5K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
26.0% / 28.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 5 minutes ago
May 16, 26, 9:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
If California’s 2026 billionaire tax will become legally operative after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The Washington PostFox NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe GuardianABCBloomberg NewsCBSSouth China Morning PostNBCthe Associated PressThe VergeBBCAxiosCNNABC News AustraliaThe InformationSemaforMSNBCCBCReutersPoliticoThe New York Times
- For purposes of this market, California’s 2026 billionaire tax becomes legally operative only if the measure is approved by voters and is not superseded, blocked, or rendered inoperative by any higher-vote conflicting ballot measure approved at the same election.
- Reporting that the measure merely received more Yes than No votes does not qualify unless the report also indicates that the measure will become operative, enforceable, or legally effective. “Legally operative” does not require that any tax has been collected, paid, assessed, or become due.
- Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market.
- Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify.
- Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will California’s billionaire tax take effect??
- Kalshi prices No at 71% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will California’s billionaire tax take effect? resolve?
- Will California’s billionaire tax take effect? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will California’s billionaire tax take effect? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If California’s 2026 billionaire tax will become legally operative after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.