Will The California Billionaire Wealth Tax pass if it is on the ballot in 2026?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionBusiness & Corporate3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 67.8%
Forecasters
43
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 29, 26, 6:49 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?
Manifold MarketsWill the California billionaire wealth tax appear on the ballot?
KalshiWill the California billionaire wealth tax pass?
KalshiBillionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
PolymarketWill California’s billionaire tax take effect?
KalshiCalifornia wealth tax defeats opposing propositions?
PolymarketRules
Resolves Yes if it passes, Resolves no if it is on the ballot and fails, and resolves n/a if it doesn’t appear on the ballot.
- https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcabillionairetax/will-california-have-a-billionaire-tax-referendum/kxcabillionairetax-26nov03
- I will use Kalshi to decide if it is on the ballot.
- I can resolve n/a early before the end of the year if it is impossible to appear on the ballot.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will The California Billionaire Wealth Tax pass if it is on the ballot in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 68% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will The California Billionaire Wealth Tax pass if it is on the ballot in 2026? resolve?
- Will The California Billionaire Wealth Tax pass if it is on the ballot in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will The California Billionaire Wealth Tax pass if it is on the ballot in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves Yes if it passes, Resolves no if it is on the ballot and fails, and resolves n/a if it doesn’t appear on the ballot.