Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 87.7%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingSep 22, 26, 2:32 PM UTCOct 28, 26, 12:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
UK Autumn Budget 2026: will the 'mansion tax' threshold be set below £2 million?
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Manifold MarketsUK Autumn Budget 2026: will VAT on domestic gas be cut below 5%?
Manifold MarketsUK Autumn Budget 2026: will the Energy Profits Levy be raised or extended?
Manifold MarketsBillionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
PolymarketWill California pass a wealth tax referendum in 2026?
PredictItRules
YES if the Budget announces a recurring tax on net wealth.
- Polymarket priced this at about 12% on 21 Sep 2026.
- Resolves YES if the measure is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech on 28 October 2026 or appears in the Budget documents HM Treasury publishes that day (the Budget document, the policy decisions table, the policy costings, or the Overview of Tax Legislation and Rates).
- A measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it.
- A consultation, review or call for evidence alone resolves NO.
- This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, 30 minutes before the speech is due to begin, because measures resolve as the Chancellor announces them.