Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 81%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 46 minutes ago
LaggingSep 22, 26, 2:32 PM UTCOct 28, 26, 12:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
YES if the Budget announces a VAT rate below 5% on domestic gas for any period.
- Resolves YES if the measure is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech on 28 October 2026 or appears in the Budget documents HM Treasury publishes that day (the Budget document, the policy decisions table, the policy costings, or the Overview of Tax Legislation and Rates).
- A measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it.
- A consultation, review or call for evidence alone resolves NO.
- This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, 30 minutes before the speech is due to begin, because measures resolve as the Chancellor announces them.
- The creator may trade in this market.
