PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Ariel Pakes 33%Leader of 9 outcomes
Ariel Pakes 33%Market quality
68 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$14.1K
Liquidity
$18.6K
Medium liquiditySpread
1.8 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Oct 6, 26, 9:04 AM UTCOct 13, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Nobel Prize in Economics 2026
KalshiWill a woman win the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physics, Chemistry, Medicine, or Economics?
Manifold MarketsWill at least one US citizen be awarded the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics?
Manifold MarketsLLMs widely used in economics modeling by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsChad Jones wins Nobel Prize in Economics before 2033?
Manifold MarketsBallon d'Or Winner 2026
PolymarketRules
The Nobel Prize in Economics is awarded annually by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.
- The 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics is scheduled to be announced on October 12, 2026, at 11:45 AM CEST (5:45 AM ET) at the earliest.
- The Nobel Prize in Economics means the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed person is named a laureate of the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics in the official announcement from the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The prize may be shared by up to three laureates.
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for Ariel Pakes is 33%. The venue spread is about 9 percentage points.
CoinRithm reference Ariel Pakes 33% · 2 venues · 9 pt venue spread
- Also available on Kalshi — Nobel Prize in Economics 2026 · Ariel Pakes 24%
