Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (97.8%)
Resolved: Oct 12, 2026, 11:35 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Yes
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 12, 2026, 6:04 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes97.8%
No2.200000000000003%
Won
Lost
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Robinhood (Rothera)Rules
Resolving based on the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel.
- This is one of 25 props in the 11th annual Narcissist Forecasting Contest, as described here:
- https://braff.co/advice/f/announcing-the-2026-narcissist-forecasting-contest
- The prop and any ambiguities will be resolved by a panel of human judges, as described in the fine print of the entry form:
- https://forms.gle/nDDxdxyYSNheY9FV7
- This means that the prop may resolve differently from how other, similar-looking Manifold props resolve.
