Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 86.3%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleJan 12, 26, 12:59 AM UTCOct 17, 26, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Nobel Prize in Economics 2026
KalshiIf a Nobel Prize for Economics is awarded to work on prediction markets before 2040, will the recipient be Robin Hanson?
Manifold MarketsWill Michael Levin be awarded the Nobel Prize?
Manifold MarketsAssuming Robin Hanson is awarded the nobel prize, which of his research areas will it be related to?
Manifold MarketsNobel Prize in Literature: 2026
KalshiSuper Ballon d'Or awarded before 2030
KalshiRules
Resolving based on the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel.
- This is one of 25 props in the 11th annual Narcissist Forecasting Contest, as described here:
- https://braff.co/advice/f/announcing-the-2026-narcissist-forecasting-contest
- The prop and any ambiguities will be resolved by a panel of human judges, as described in the fine print of the entry form:
- https://forms.gle/nDDxdxyYSNheY9FV7
- This means that the prop may resolve differently from how other, similar-looking Manifold props resolve.
Open markets
Awards
POLYMARKETBallon d'Or Winner 2026
- Harry Kane-0.9pt61.2%
- Lamine Yamal-0.3pt13.6%
- Kylian Mbappé+1.9pt11.7%
+28 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.4M
- 24h Vol
- $439.3K
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Ncaafheisman 26
- DMEN+2.0pt17%
- AMAN11%
- CCAR10%
+28 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $136.8K
KALSHIThe Game Awards: 2026 Game of the Year
- Grand Theft Auto VI-3.0pt62.5%
- Resident Evil Requiem+1.0pt11.6%
- Control Resonant+1.0pt8%
+16 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETBallon d'Or Top 3 Finish 2026
- Harry Kane+0.7pt94%
- Lamine Yamal-8.5pt77%
- Kylian Mbappé-8.0pt60%
+28 more outcomes
KALSHIMTV Video Music Awards: Best Alternative
- Olivia Rodrigo-4.0pt61%
- twenty one pilots+7.0pt16.1%
- Noah Kahan-6.0pt9.3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $32.8K
KALSHIMTV Video Music Awards: Best Latin
- Shakira & Burna Boy39.8%
- Bad Bunny-2.0pt30.6%
- Anitta with Shakira25%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $22.9K
- 24h Vol
- $1.2K
- MTV Video Music Awards: Song of The Year
- MTV Video Music Awards: Best K-Pop
- MTV Video Music Awards: Best New Artist
- MLS: 2026 Goalkeeper of the Year
- MTV Video Music Awards: Best Collaboration
- 2026 MTV Video Music Awards: Host
- MTV Video Music Awards: Video of the Year
- MTV Video Music Awards: Best Country
- Grammy Winner: Best New Artist
- MTV Video Music Awards: Artist of The Year
- MLS: 2026 Golden Boot Winner
- MTV Video Music Awards: Best Art Direction
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will at least one US citizen be awarded the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 86% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will at least one US citizen be awarded the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics? resolve?
- Will at least one US citizen be awarded the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics? is scheduled to resolve on October 17, 2026.
- How is Will at least one US citizen be awarded the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolving based on the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel.