If a Nobel Prize for Economics is awarded to work on prediction markets before 2040, will the recipient be Robin Hanson?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for If a Nobel Prize for Economics is awarded to work on prediction markets before 2040, will the recipient be Robin Hanson??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 62.7% as of October 26, 2026.

When does If a Nobel Prize for Economics is awarded to work on prediction markets before 2040, will the recipient be Robin Hanson? resolve?

If a Nobel Prize for Economics is awarded to work on prediction markets before 2040, will the recipient be Robin Hanson? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2039.

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POLYMARKET

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?

• December 31+0.3pt4%
• October 31+0.1pt1%

+5 more outcomes

Total Vol

$75.3M

24h Vol

$439.3K

KALSHI

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

• Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt22.5%
• Before Jan 1, 2028+1.0pt13.5%
• Before Jan 1, 2027-0.1pt4.7%

KALSHI

Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?

• No97.5%
• Yes2.5%

Total Vol

$525.7K

24h Vol

$8.6K

POLYMARKET

Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by which date?

• June 30+8.5pt54%
• December 31+0.5pt12%

Total Vol

$20.6K

24h Vol

$5.5K

KALSHI

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

• Yes+0.3pt81.8%
• No18.1%

Total Vol

$438.1K

24h Vol

$2.5K

KALSHI

How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?

• Above 1+2.0pt13.5%
• Above 2+2.0pt5%
• Above 70.5%

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