Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 87.6%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleJun 16, 26, 12:26 PM UTCJan 1, 42, 11:00 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
This question answers YES if Robin Hanson reiceves the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, regardless if that is due to his work on Prediction Markets / Idea Futures or Futarchy or any other set or subset of his work.
- This question resolves NO if Robin Hanson dies (and remains dead) before he is awarded that prize.
Open markets
Macro & Economy
KALSHIVisitors to Florida in 2026
- Above 136 million+1.0pt98%
- Above 138 million-2.0pt94%
- Above 140 million+3.0pt80%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $146.1K
- 24h Vol
- $55.1K
KALSHIConnecticut multifamily housing permits in 2026
- Above 3,500 units-1.0pt88%
- Above 4,000 units-4.0pt66%
- Above 4,500 units-18.0pt30%
+5 more outcomes
KALSHIPennsylvania gas prices tomorrow
- Above 4.260099%
- Above 4.265099%
- Above 4.270099%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $20.9K
- 24h Vol
- $20.9K
KALSHIWill GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
- No93%
- Yes-2.0pt7%
- Total Vol
- $3.1M
- 24h Vol
- $18.6K
KALSHIHow high will the Nikkei 225 get in 2026?
- At least ¥73,000-31.0pt34%
- At least ¥74,000-39.0pt28%
- At least ¥80,00024%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $16.8K
KALSHIPort of New York and New Jersey container volume in 2026
- Above 8.4 million TEUs95%
- Above 8.6 million TEUs+4.0pt85%
- Above 8.7 million TEUs+3.0pt73%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $66.1K
- Housing units authorized in Vermont in 2026
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- Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 5, 2026
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Robin Hanson receive the Nobel Prize in Economics??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 88% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Robin Hanson receive the Nobel Prize in Economics? resolve?
- Will Robin Hanson receive the Nobel Prize in Economics? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2042.
- How is Will Robin Hanson receive the Nobel Prize in Economics? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This question answers YES if Robin Hanson reiceves the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, regardless if that is due to his work on Prediction Markets / Idea Futures or Futarchy or any other set or subset of his work.